SCENES FROM AN UNRLENTING POPULAR STRUGGLE 2016-2020
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The Pink Suit
Boy with no father is dutifully attentive
To the great glass screen’s
Daily commands,
When the unrelenting persuasion
Stopped for a message not from any sponsor.
Reporters on the scene couldn’t confirm
What they instinctively knew was true, so
Doing their job of clamoring for anything
That amounts to official word,
They passed on to us two of them: “Oh No!,”
Which they heard spoken by the pretty woman in the pink suit.
And in no time the boy runs
Into the hallway, crossing two generations
And defying all propriety
To callously interrupt a sacred ritual
Of afternoon telephoning,
To recount to his PTA-organizing
And very Republican grandma
As best as his untrained five-year-old mind can
What just happened in some place called Dallas, Texas.
Any misgivings over such an impolite gesture
Vanished as she ended the call
With immediacy never again to be seen.
Seconds later, back in the living room
Where doilies draped the couch and
The Werner Sollman Jesus hung on the wall,
She consoles the boy with a light but constant embrace
And repeated assurances as all eyes are fixed on the screen
That, “It’s all right. We’ll have Johnson.”
The brave calm in her voice and her touch
Steadies herself as much as the boy,
Letting her draw comfort from a kindergartner’s innocence
While lending him her wisdom.
And as the boy ponders the words, “Oh no,”
Spoken by the pretty woman in the pink suit
In some place called Dallas, Texas,
His own primal feeling of futility
Never before graspable
Now has a two-word name.
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| Was Libertarian Jo Jorgensen the unintentional kingmaker? |
Though the intangibles make it impossible to prove this with simple math, here is a very conceivable scenario: If Libertarian Party presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen were not on Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin and Arizona’s ballots we’d be agonizing right now over an upcoming second Trump term.
Those states have a combined 57 Electoral Votes, which, if added to Trump’s 232, would have given him 289 Electoral Votes and left Biden with 256. OMG, the thought of it.
Of course, we don’t have to think of it, except in the context of small parties’ tendencies to push the country decidedly in the opposite direction from which those parties themselves lean. (CLICK to see how a 1984 left walkout in Kentucky made McConnell a Senator.)
If the 1984 McConnell case is obscure, then do Nader and the Greens in 2000 ring a bell?
I was an organizer for Nader's Kentucky campaign in 1996, but was wary of his running four years later, and I supported the Democrats in 2000. And oh what we wouldn’t give to have two Gore-chosen Supreme Court Justices sitting where Samuel Alito and John Roberts sit today.
Of the four battleground states mentioned above, in a scenario whereby Pennsylvania still went for Joe Biden, but the other three for Trump, Biden would have 276 Electoral Votes, a win so thin as to add potency to Trump’s laughably weak legal challenges to the outcome, and subtract potency from a Biden presidency. Not a Trump win, but a much worse situation than the one we’re actually in.
So, let’s take the number crunch tour of these four states: Biden has won Georgia by 14,000 votes (2,472,278 to 2,458,250). To be sure, let’s give credit to the innovative and smart voter drive of Stacey Abrams and her Fair Fight organization -- it worked!
But let’s look at some math as well: Jo Jorgensen won 62,000 votes in Georgia, more than four times Biden’s margin over Trump in the state. The Libertarians historically have attracted voters with liberal and conservative mindsets, depending on the issue. But with marijuana legalization spreading within the major party duopoly, the Libertarians have been focusing on staunch anti-gun control and anti-tax messages, likely presenting many more Republican-leaning voters with an alternative.
Regarding left alternatives to the Democrats, there was no Green Party candidate on the Georgia ballot. As for the possibility that write-ins for Green Howie Hawkins took potential Biden votes away -- forget it, there were just 457 write in votes for president by Georgia voters.
Pennsylvania is not as clear; Hawkins also was not on that state’s ballot. Jorgensen was.
Biden won the state of his birth by 82,000 votes (3,444,794 to 3,362,693). Jorgensen won 79,000. There was a robust write-in total of 6,678 (States customarily don’t release the names of write-in vote recipients unless one of them wins).
Let’s amend our Pennsylvania scenario to see Green Howie Hawkins being on the state’s ballot and Libertarian Jo Jorgensen not being on it. That would likely have tipped the Keystone State to -- I can’t say it, but then I don’t have to.
On to Wisconsin: Biden won the state by 20,000 votes (1,630,716 to 1,610,151), while Jorgensen won 38,000. There also was no Green on Wisconsin’s ballot. There were 7,827 write ins, and Brian Carroll of the socially conservative American Solidarity Party won 5,266 votes.
A Wisconsin race without Jorgensen or the anti-abortion, anti-euthanasia, anti-death penalty Carroll is probably a race Trump wins.
In Arizona, it was close in 2020. Real close:
Biden won the state by 11,000 votes (1,672,143 to 1,661,686), while Jorgensen received 51,000. There was no Green candidate on the ballot, and there were just 551 write ins.
Those numbers spell: “Thank you, Jo Jorgensen,” as do Georgia’s and Wisconsin’s. Maybe Pennsylvania’s, too. But this sounds patronizing to the Libertarians, which is not my intent.
Nonetheless, running for office in a third or small party should be done to pursue a strategic outcome, not just to evangelize the party's doctrine.
Greens could accomplish a lot by visibly running candidates for the U.S. House and Senate. Someone of Ralph Nader or Jill Stein’s level of recognition might be able to win a House seat, or bargain with their votes to make the Democrats be more pro-environmental or pro-economic equity. They could then speak publicly for a slate of Congressional candidates in many states to gain seats and/or bargaining power for the Greens to move the Dems leftward.
But running as a third or small party presidential candidate, as said, should be done eyeing a specific outcome that advances the public policies the party advocates. That outcome cannot be intangibles such as increased visibility or rallying the populace, given the unabated rightward White House policies in the four years after Nader and Stein’s runs in 2000 and 2016.
It must be measured in how many Electoral Votes a candidate believes they can win, and how many coattail Congressional seats for their party their candidacy realistically can generate. If the honest answer is 0 to both, run for Congress instead, or help out with Fair Fight.
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Brian Arbenz is a political activist, observer and commentator living in Louisville, Ky. USA.
Biden won. That’s the reality. No qualifiers. No near slip up at the end that again defied the opinion polls.
The story should not be framed as Trump’s surprisingly strong performance in states where Biden was sure to cruise to a win. That pundit line thrived for a couple of days because it was rural votes that were counted first in Pennsylvania and Michigan. The Philadelphia and Detroit ballots had to be forced out of post offices by judicial Heimlich maneuvers from federal judges.
When all the ballots are counted, Biden will have beaten an incumbent president by 5.3 million popular votes and he will have won more than 300 Electoral Votes.
Biden’s final win was just about as strong as the polls showed his advantage being in the last two months, though on election night and the next day, media phraseology was all about OMG, here we go again; Joe Biden will write “What Happened, Vol. 2!”
Biden’s final popular vote advantage being smaller than what polls projected simply reflects the normal leveling off of the leader’s margin when actual votes are cast, and that drop never taints a victory or the mandate of the incoming president.
George H.W. Bush led Michael Dukakis by 12-to-14 points throughout October 1988, then won the actual popular vote by eight points. Similarly, Bill Clinton’s lead over President Bush was about 8-to-10 poll points throughout the race, then he actually beat Bush by five points, 43 percent to 38, with a strong protest vote of 19 percent going to Ross Perot.
Unlike in 1976 and 1980, when Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan, respectively, held leads of about 30 points after their nominations, then steadily lost ground until they were in toss-up races in the final week, Biden’s 2020 performance was one of consistency -- never slipping during the general election from a solid, but not overwhelming lead.
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| Along the way, the author posted this meme to remind voters of the final goal. |
Of course, without a Democrat Senate majority, single payer health care and a $15-an-hour minimum wage are not going to become law in the next two years -- but would they necessarily even if the Senate were in Blue hands, or if the Democrats pull to a 50-50 tie after the Georgia run offs in January?
A Democrat majority built on wins in North Carolina and South Carolina the Democrats almost got and/or Georgia wins might well be one which could not count on Senators from those conservative states to vote for a bold progressive agenda. Susan Collins or Mitt Romney might be as willing as southern Democrats to support health care or minimum wage bills.
The next four years are unclear. Will a vastly improved Coronavirus response, a successful vaccine, and economic improvements win the voters’ goodwill, or will the the big corporate domination of our lives still keep us chained to poverty jobs?
For now, let’s appreciate the fact that we longed to truncate the Trump racist, hateful war on empathy, and by standing strong, refuting disinformation, and voting strategically, we did it.
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Brian Arbenz, of Louisville, began resisting four years ago by attending the Women's March in Washington on 1/21/2017. That was just the start, and even with Biden as president our resistance against hate and exclusion must continue.
