Aside from the classic advantages of an incumbent and his crushing of campaign finance reform efforts, four problems endemic to Kentucky have for the last 30 years made the nationally despised Mitch McConnell unbeatable in The Bluegrass State.
1. Lousy challengers
Kentucky Secretary of
State Alison Lundergan Grimes excited the nation with charisma, sharpness, and energy, as well as a small poll lead over McConnell in the early stages of
the 2014 campaign. And idealistic people poured into Kentucky to join
progressives here to work for her election.
What if she had
accomplished the glorious victory over Senator McConnell? Well, since 2014,
Lundergan Grimes – momentarily the hope of progressives -- has been accused of receiving
illegal campaign money from her father, who is a longtime Democratic fundraiser;
misusing data from the Secretary of State office for her partisan career ends;
and riding in a state police car at 100 mph for the not-exactly emergency purpose
of getting to the Kentucky Derby quickly.
The previous Democrat challenger
was Bruce Lunsford, who in the banner anti-Republican year of 2008 looked strong
early against McConnell. Lunsford dripped with Kentucky credentials – he had played
high school basketball, cut tobacco and owned a thoroughbred horse. But left
and right soured on him as the word got around that the massive health care
company Lunsford ran had been fined over alleged dumping of Medicare patients in
favor of more profitable cases, and that investors in the firm had accused him
of leaving them high and dry.
In the ’08 race, Lunsford had
consistently maintained a small lead, but sputtered in the final weeks to a 6
percentage point loss.
In 1990, McConnell was
opposed for a second Senate term by the once polished and assertive two-term
Louisville mayor Harvey Sloane, a physician, Great Society veteran and Peace
Corps volunteer. His lightning-like first mayoral term of 1973 to ’77 had
brought the long stagnating city better mass transit, expanded minority
business opportunities, EMS services, superb architectural preservation and a
fine science museum.
That was then. In 1990,
Senate-candidate Sloane was cited by police for open alcohol on his boat, received
a letter of criticism from the AMA for the frowned-on practice of prescribing
himself sleeping pills, and appeared in his own ads with a sallow face and lethargic
voice.
And during a stint in the
‘80s as head of Jefferson County government (McConnell’s former position) Sloane
took in campaign contributions from companies which received county contracts.
Sounds more like Mitch than the solution to him.
In the 1990 Senatorial
election, Harvey Sloane – who as mayor in the ‘70s had been chosen one of Time
magazine’s 100 Most Influential Americans -- failed to excite the electorate
and lost by eight points.
There have been other
flops by McConnell opponents, but that’s enough pain.
2. Unbelievably low voter
turnout
I bristled in 1975 when a
high school civics textbook comparing attitudes about voting among actual
Americans quoted a woman described as a waitress in a diner in Louisville
saying, “I don’t have no dealings in politics.”
What an awful image for
our community, but then and now, there’s no denying its authenticity – diner workers
in this city 45 years ago were basically rural Kentucky transplants (today,
they’re immigrants and tattooed undergrads), and looking at voter turnout
numbers in the Eastern and Southern Kentucky counties denoted by the above
dialect produces some shockers.
In the 2019 primary, Laurel
County had an 18 percent turnout, Wayne County had a 15 percent turnout, and Casey
County (the home of a recent governor, no less) had an 11 percent turnout. One
county’s name may evoke the “of the people, by the people, for the people” oratory,
but where were the people of Lincoln County in June 2019? – just 17
percent of them voted. Now you see why those poor counties keep going
Republican; voting is overwhelmingly done by the propertied residents and unionized
coal miners made scared of climate action by one-sided pundits.
Statewide, the 2019
primary voter turnout was 19.3 percent, way up from the projected 12.5
percent. Yes, 19 percent was an unexpected surge! And 92 percent of Kentucky’s 3.4
million voter registrations are with the Democrats or Republicans, so the fact that
independents can’t vote in party primaries is not a major cause of low turnout.
When the Hillary Clinton
v. Bernie Sanders ’16 primary race had passions at an all-time high that
produced gigantic crowds in Louisville and elsewhere, the statewide primary
turnout was 20.6 percent. (Caveat: the Secretary of State website says voters
who had died or moved out of state were not subtracted from the eligible
numbers, so turnout may actually have been more like 25 percent, but whoop-e-de-do.)
What about general
elections? In 2015, Republican Matt Bevin, a vehement right-winger, won the
governorship with a general election turnout of 30 percent. His “mandate” came
from 16 out of 100 registered voters.
Mitch owes the power he
has amassed in the last 34 years to Kentuckians staying at home the first
Tuesday of every sixth November. He has driven the GOP’s nationwide voter suppression
crusade because he appreciates the weapon of non-voting.
There have been some recent positive counter-trends. In the 2018 mid-term
general election, the number of people in Louisville/Jefferson County who
turned out was about 290,000; that's up from about 255,000 in the 2014 mid-terms. And
that increase came in a year with no U.S. Senate race or governor’s race
statewide, indicating a big anti-Trump sentiment. (UPDATE: The strongly Trump-endorsed Bevin was narrowly beaten in November 2019 by Democrat Andy Beshear in a clear rejection of Bevin's confrontational method of governing; but all other Republicans won their statewide races that election.)
3. Kentucky Democrats
don’t innovate
As said, Alison Lundergan Grimes is the daughter of a well-connected political fundraiser. The 2019 Democrat governor-elect Andy Beshear is the son of the last Democratic governor Steve Beshear. The chairmanship of the state's largest Fortune 500 icon Humana Inc. was handed to David Jones Jr., son of the retiring chairman David Jones Sr. The nine-time Pulitzer wining newspaper the Louisville Courier-Journal was made journalistically great and politically influential by Barry Bingham Sr., then Barry Bingham Jr.
In a state where the right last name and where you went to high school are everything, insularity and imitativeness are bred.
A glaring absence of fresh, original spin was displayed by Grimes in 2014 in a clunky flub that turned a tied race into a sure McConnell win.
Grimes knew that during an interview with the Louisville Courier-Journal
editorial board she’d be asked if she had voted for Barack Obama – McConnell
had been asked in 2008 by the paper if he had voted for a George W. Bush who in that year was
deeply unpopular. (The senator answered that he had voted for W.)
Imagine Lundergan Grimes
had answered this way: “Having given President Obama my vote, and being in his party, I
can bargain with him for Kentucky’s interests. Mitch McConnell can’t
do that. Since Mitch automatically opposes everything the administration proposes, the White House has no incentive to try to compromise
with him. So, Senator McConnell cannot negotiate for our interests. But I will.”
Instead of confidently re-framing
her vote for Obama as this tool of access to benefit the state, Lundergan
Grimes dived under the table. She wouldn’t say for whom she had voted in 2012
or ’08, citing the “sanctity” of the secret ballot, adding that it was her
right by law to keep her vote private, and an imperative of her Secretary of
State position to do so.
Her lame attempt to appear
principled, instead of enabling Lundergan Grimes to sidestep Obama’s
unpopularity in a coal and tobacco state, drew cynicism and ridicule. It focused
far more attention on the clash between Obama’s climate action plan and the
wishes of the coal industry.
Which brings us to…
4. Coal is an emperor with
no clothes
The myth that coal jobs
are endangered by environmentalism isn’t challenged widely because no leader in
the state’s public or private sector will open a discussion about what really
took the jobs away – overreliance on coal.
Coal employment in
Kentucky had already been vanishing before Obama clean air rules – in 2001,
Eastern Kentucky produced 110 million tons of coal, but just about 80 million
tons in 2009. The drop has been to 20 million tons in 2017, and Western
Kentucky’s surface coal mines have similarly lost business.
But the plummeting numbers
are due to competition from natural gas and renewables, not Obama’s clean air
plan. The U.S. Energy Information Agency said that 20-million-ton yearly amount
in Eastern Kentucky is expected to stay steady through 2035, with or without the
Obama climate action plan.
Switching to solar and
wind -- and developing cultural resources in the manner of the coal-less and
booming Appalachian city of Ashville, N.C. -- could bring jobs back to rural
Kentucky, but no one in Kentucky’s power structure dares talk of converting the
economy. Instead, the one-note economic strategy is, bring back coal jobs.
But they aren’t
retrievable. An Appalachian Regional Commission study found: “After aggressive mining
in Central Appalachia for more than a century, the
remaining coal is more expensive to extract, compared to other coal-producing
regions, because it tends to be deeper in the ground and/or seams tend to be
thinner.”
This is why the price of
electricity from Eastern Kentucky coal will no longer be competitive with natural gas, solar and
wind. But an isolated and predictable state polity keeps us from hearing this.
Kentucky sorely lacks
visionary state legislators, progressive labor unions, a great university, or
pluralism in media. The two metro daily newspapers, the Courier-Journal and the Lexington Herald-Leader, have reported about renewables and natural gas causing coal's decline, but out there among the party leaders, chambers of commerce, and the all-powerful political fundraisers, it's as though this has never been said.
Outside of Louisville, Kentucky is as socially conservative
as Mississippi, but the state as a whole has an 8 percent black population (as
opposed to Mississippi’s 37 percent).
The racial differential,
combined with the one-note mythmaking on coal jobs explains why since Donald
Trump became president the Kentucky Republican Party has added 72,000
registered voters, to just 1,100 by the Democrats.
Democrats must challenge the
coal industry’s official line, or they will continue to inflict numbers like those
on themselves.
Brian Arbenz lives in Louisville, Ky. USA, the hometown of a Mitch McConnell known as - would you believe it - moderate and bi-partisan while the head of county government.